Research – hcacapital

HCA COMMISIONED RESEARCH

HC Andersen Capital is offering commissioned research. We have developed a format for maximum reach and overview for private and semi-institutional investors.

Our primary offering is to produce a one-two pager in an overviewable format for investors. We hope to give the reader an introduction to key investment reasons, risks, main numbers and valuation perspectives. The one pager, investment case is designed to maximise reach and engagement with the investor community

We not only produce the research with senior analysts, we also take steps for maximum distribution. We will continue to challenge how engaging with investors research can be.

Our distribution includes social media, bloomberg and partners such as Avanza with 1,8mio users in Sweden – as well as our own platform inderes.dk

HCA ROBOTICS sector report

HCA Robotics Sector Report – October 2022
In our Robotics sector report for October 2022, we provide insights into the recent market trends such as nearshoring and deglobalization, and how this potentially will have a positive effect on the robotics and automation sector. In the report, we also look into how both small and mid-sized Nordic robotics and automation companies as well as global market-leading companies are valued. Finally, we present one-pager investment cases of 3 Danish companies within the robotics and automation sector. Note that these companies are paying clients from a Digital IR agreement.

Macroeconomic uncertainty could support the growth
Historically, the Robotics and Automation sector, measured by the Global Robotics and Automation Index (ROBO) ETF, have underperformed other growth sectors such as Cloud and GreenTech. However, the Robotics and Automation sector could be the next winner this decade due to the global macroeconomic uncertainty with inflationary pressure, labor shortages, and an increasing nearshoring trend to protect global supply chains. To overcome labor shortages and secure supply chains, companies in the developed world could move its production closer to their home markets, which will increase investments in the Robotics and Automation sector.

HCA GreenTech sector report

HCA GREENTECH SECTOR REPORT – September 2022
In our new GreenTech report for September 2022, we provide insights into the recent market trends within the green transition. Focusing on 2022, green investments have accelerated following the geopolitical situation in Europe moving away from importing Russian gas combined with US President Biden’s USD 369 billion climate plan. In the report, we also take a look at how small and mid-sized GreenTech companies are valued in the Nordic region. Finally, we present one-pager investment cases of 8 small cap and mid cap GreenTech companies within different segments and technologies in the green/energy transition. Note that these companies are paying clients from a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility agreement.

One of the best performing sectors in 2022
Despite market uncertainty in 2022 with increasing interest rates affecting growth stocks negatively, the green/clean energy sector, measured by the broad iShares Clean Energy ETF, has performed well, up approx. 20% year-to-date. This is a significant excess return compared to the MSCI World Index, down approx. 20% year-to-date. Future share price development in the sector is hard to predict, however, a massive capital inflow is expected to be invested in the GreenTech sector as politicians and companies continuously are looking for new ways to solve the biggest challenge in the world.

HCA SaaS REPORT

Software-as-a-Service report – May 2022
In our Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) report for May 2022, we provide insights into the SaaS business model, market trends, valuation perspectives as well as deep dives into the Danish SaaS sector, which has been built up during a hot IPO market in the second half of 2020 and 2021. We have outlined several key SaaS metrics and parameters that investors should follow and benchmarked the companies across the Danish SaaS sector. Finally, we are presenting the investment cases of 8 Danish-listed SaaS companies (financials, key SaaS metrics, valuation perspectives, investment reasons, and risks), which are paying clients from a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility agreement.

Key takeaways – down but not out
Following record-high valuations in 2021, we have observed a sharp decline in valuation multiples to levels below pre-COVID, which has been dragged down by increasing interest rates and fear of slower growth rates. However, long-term double-digit growth rates are expected to continue supported by secular growth trends such as the ongoing digital transformation, automation, and optimization of resources. Thus, current entry levels look interesting for investors with a well-diversified portfolio tripping to get exposure to the software sector and scalable SaaS business models.

HCA SaaS INDEX - JAN 2023

Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) update – January 2023: Rebound in the first month of 2023

The SaaS HCA Index, measured on a simple ARR multiple (median) across 19 listed Danish SaaS companies, increased slightly to 4.3x ARR by the end of January 2023 from 4.2x ARR by the end of December 2022. However, the SaaS companies’ share prices increased by a median return of approx. 14% in the first month of 2023 and thus rebounding from larger declines during 2022. In general, the relatively small increase in the median ARR multiple itself is partly explained by new higher reported ARR numbers from some of the SaaS companies, which have updated the market with end of 2022 numbers.

Note the index shows the development over time for the sector, using the latest reported ARR numbers (which differ between the companies). Almost all companies have been tracked for at least a year (the latest SaaS IPO in Denmark was in December 2021). However, we have made some minor adjustments since a few companies suspended or changed methodologies during January. This has not caused any considerable differences in the historical numbers of the ARR multiple, since we are using the median value.

The larger and more liquid US-listed SaaS companies – measured by The SaaS Capital Index (annualized current run-rate revenue) – have not been updated yet for January. However, the sector was traded at 6.5x ARR by the end of December 2022, and we expect this to increase as we have seen a large rebound in the US SaaS companies in January as well.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the US 10Y bond yield declined from 3.88% by the end of December 2022 to 3.51% by the end of January 2023. Overall, this had a positive effect on growth stocks, including the SaaS companies.

In February, we will update and cover some of the SaaS companies’ development for Q4 2022 and 2022 in general as the first SaaS companies report their annual report during February with more to come in March. We do not expect any major surprises for 2022, as many companies have either provided numbers to the market or adjusted their guidance recently. More relevant will be the guidance for 2023, indicating whether (most of) the companies (still) are facing longer sales cycles due to the macroeconomic uncertainty.

As we continue to see high interest and receive many questions about the SaaS sector despite the market challenges in 2022, we expect to announce a free newsletter in H1 2023 covering the SaaS sector.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment for a Corporate Visibility/Digital IR subscription agreement from companies in The SaaS HCA Index. /Kasper Lihn 1 February 2023, 14:40.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment for a Corporate Visibility/Digital IR subscription agreement from several of the companies that are included in the report.

HCA COMMISIONED RESEARCH

HCA ROBOTICS sector report

HCA GreenTech sector report

HCA SaaS REPORT

HCA SaaS INDEX - JAN 2023

Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) update – January 2023: Rebound in the first month of 2023

MICHAEL FRIIS

KASPER LIHN

RASMUS KØJBORG

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