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Update on guidance

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Yesterday Omnicarservice.dk announced updated guidance for 2022, and they now expect total revenue to end between SEK 200-250 million.

https://spotlightstockmarket.com/en/market-overview/news//news-article?id=81299

At the time of the financial report release, they gave indicative guidance on year end revenue targets on a 12-month rolling basis for the OCS business (repair van) of SEK 58 million, and expected sale of vehicles on the  online e-car platform of 570.

Those targets are not changed, but with this update they specify what that will amount to in sales for 2022.

In the OCS business they expect same growth rates as 2021 (65%), which will amount to a revenue in 2022 of around SEK 30 million.

On the car side, they expect average sales price to be SEK 400,000 per e-vehicle (sales statistics). Directly calculated that gives an expected revenue of around SEK 228 million.

These cars need to be sourced, so there is a certain uncertainty, which could explain the range that the company gives (SEK 200-250 million)

Looking ahead, they estimate SEK 600-800 million on a 12-month rolling basis (targets monthly revenue in December 2022 of 58 million SEK multiplied with 12).

There is no guidance on earnings in the update. But the financing of this growth journey is to some extent financed by the capital injection from Mekonomen of SEK 20 million announced in March.

Including the newly injected capital, Omnicar has a market cap of SEK 111 million at yesterday’s closing price. That gives a price-to-sales multiple between 0.45-0.55x.

If we look at peers to evaluate the OCS business, a revenue estimate of SEK 30 million is used in 2022 as mentioned above. In relation to that, it is hard to find any perfect public-traded match. It’s primarily private companies that are comparable, or companies operating in the old business model of auto repair and spare parts, which do not grow revenue. Mekonomen trades at around 0.8x sales on expected 2022 sales.

The most comparable company is Wrench which is privately owned, but Bridgestone has acquired 10% of the company at USD 38 million in September. No precise 2021-2022 revenue numbers are out, however, the company reported 48 USD million in 2020, with a huge growth expected in 2021 (including M&A) of 200-300%. This indicates a multiple 2-4x sales.

If we look at the new pre-owned car online market, where this an expected revenue of SEK 170-220 million, most companies are still privately held, but a few are on the stock market (more a hybrid between a platform like Bilbasen and selling used cars online).

Both Aramis Group and Auto1 are on the stock market and trade at around 0.4-0.5x sales based on 2022 numbers.

HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Omnicar Holding AB trough a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility agreement./Michael Friis, 02-04-2022, kl. 10:45